Original title: After the epidemic rages the car market, is it the spring of new energy vehicles or winter?
The author saw the
sudden outbreak in early 2020, which brought unprecedented shocks to the automotive industry, and even spread to the new energy vehicle field that was originally in the air. However, there is no doubt that the overall market trend of new energy vehicles as the mainstream research and development direction of future automotive products is still good.
However, it is still uncertain how long it will take for new energy vehicles to recover from the past rapid growth after the epidemic raged the car market. Moreover, since March, the epidemic situation has spread globally and continued to be stuck. As a global basic consumer product, the automobile is one of the major contributors to the GDP of various countries. The market trends at both ends of production and sales, as well as the crisis and opportunities facing new energy vehicles, have affected the sensitive nerves of the industry.
Although new energy vehicles are the industry vent, sales have all the way.
been declining In fact, although new energy vehicles are regarded as the industry vent, in the past 2019, the first decline in the situation of increasing sales in the past 10 years.
According to data released by the China Automobile Industry Association: In November 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 110,000 and 95,000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% and 43.7%. As of November, the new energy vehicle industry has been running for 5 consecutive months. Production and sales declined.
Affected by the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the cold environment of the auto market, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in 2019 was 1.206 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, which is also the first year-on-year decline in sales of new energy vehicles. And just before 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, all indicators have fallen to freezing point. The emergence of the epidemic suddenly made this emerging market even worse.
According to data released by the China Automobile Industry Association on February 13, both ends of new energy vehicle production and sales in January fell by more than 50% year-on-year, and are expected to complete 40,000 and 44,000 respectively.
Moreover, the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020 also had a huge impact on the production side of the automotive industry. Due to the delay in the resumption of work by auto companies and problems with the supply side of parts, the decline also occurred.
Wang Guangyu, general manager of JAC New Energy Automobile Marketing Co., said in an interview: “In the first quarter, due to the extended holiday, the overall output of automobile companies will decline, and the supply of automobiles will depend on stock resources in the short term. In the context of epidemic prevention and control , Offline marketing activities of dealers are difficult to carry out, and the difficulty of collecting customers has greatly increased.
At the same time, for the current new car building forces, the cash flow dilemma arises from the destocking plan of the previous year and the new year. R & D plans have been hit harder than ever. Moreover, because the current global epidemic situation is still uncertain, its important development plans still have to be postponed or even stranded.
According to the latest interview published in the “Tram House” magazine, many new energy vehicle companies not only have weak consumer ends, but also have undergone major adjustments in their R & D and production plans. This process also shows that new energy vehicle companies are responding to unexpected emergencies. When the market changes, helplessness and fragility in the face of the crisis.
Wei to Because of this, whether it is domestic new energy vehicles Star Enterprise , or Xiaopeng, Weimaraner and other new energy automobile brands, have increased as preferential order of temptation super “low” offer to the capital stock Back to cage. But it seems that more often, it seems like losing money and making money, with little effect.
It can be seen that after the market decline in 2019, new energy vehicles did not rebound and rose, but fell all the way and fell to the end.
The auto industry’s reshuffle is accelerating, and new energy vehicles are difficult to survive. After the
epidemic, many people in the industry said that the recent development of the auto industry is worrying. As for the development of new energy vehicles, their worries are overwhelming. There is no doubt that the trend of globalization of the epidemic has accelerated a new round of reshuffle in the automotive industry. Even if the governments of many countries come forward, they hope to save the car market through policies, so as to save the tide, it seems to be a sloppy job.
In terms of new energy vehicles, the tightening of subsidy policies and the decline in subsidies in 2019 have also indirectly affected the new energy market. According to a second set of data released by CCTV, the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2019 are more than 50% lower than in 2018.
Therefore, the already declining market and the re-emergence of the epidemic situation, for the new energy and new forces, its market encountered a pinch of pressure at both ends of the supply and marketing, and then also encountered an external crisis of capital closure. At this time, due to the ramp-up of mass production, the pressure on the consumption of inventory is also increasing with the day. These factors have naturally become the contradiction of new energy automobile companies and have embarrassing internal concerns. From a drastic leap forward to an inadvertent fall to the bottom, the new energy automobile industry has clearly entered an unprecedented predicament.
At this moment, when new energy vehicle companies all over the world are facing the same situation, choosing “destocking” at any cost is tantamount to self-help and even thirst. But such companies seem to have no choice but to save themselves in this way.
It seems that whether it was announced in August 2019 for its lifetime free warranty for its cars, or provided the lifetime free power exchange for the first owner of ES6 and ES8, and the “car rental with license” and ” “0 down payment financing leasing” two financial service solutions, are new energy vehicles to protect the market, to keep their own rivers and mountains, must choose.
Coincidentally, Weimar Automobile also launched the “Weima direct purchase” service in a timely manner in January 2020. According to Weima ’s official website, customers only need half the price to get Weimar “bare cars”, and The rich form of its contract package is nothing more than a means to promote sales and grab customers. However, the cost of this approach is obvious, and it is very obvious that it has faced unprecedented pressures in the face of new market and competitive environments.
And the reason why even star companies are so embarrassed, in addition to the decline in early subsidies, there are the following reasons:
First, the epidemic has made it difficult for companies to resume work, consumer income has shrunk, and car purchase plans have been delayed. In addition, this is just one aspect of the new energy vehicle market that is experiencing a cold. The “sequelae” caused by the “return to work” is also very obvious. Affected by the epidemic, many people cannot resume work normally, and their incomes have dropped sharply. In addition, many companies are facing crises such as bankruptcy, layoffs, and wage reductions. This will cause many people to continue to reduce their future income expectations. “The demand for new cars has been suppressed, to a certain extent, it has also restrained the demand many people to consume cars.
for For the new forces that are extremely” lacking money “, the environment under the epidemic is even more unfriendly. The new round of “destocking” targets is obviously more likely to “fail”. But what is even more unfriendly to him is that the “R & D” plan made years ago will be completely disrupted, and important plans can only be postponed or stagnated directly.
Secondly, although the domestic epidemic situation is gradually controlled, and car companies are gradually starting to resume production, but the international situation is still grim. A supply chain disruption will affect production-side inventory reserves, forming a vicious circle of imbalance in production and sales and tight cash flow.
The outbreak was classified as “PHEIC (Public Health Emergency Health Event)” by the International Health Organization. The first will be international trade. As for China, which has the closest relationship with the international new energy vehicle supply system, the globalization of the epidemic will further exacerbate the impact of the supply side on China’s new energy vehicle industry.
Coupled with the recent suspension of international flights, and its worldwide cargo shipping, aircraft flights, rail transportation, etc. have been directly affected and shut down, the shortage of the supply chain will directly affect the production end of new energy vehicles.
Third, the national policy direction in the new situation is still unclear, and the price of oil has plummeted. Consumers who purchase or replace new energy vehicles will also be on the sidelines in consideration of car purchase costs. Although online rumors, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will continue until the end of the year. But the influence of the international epidemic on oil prices cannot be ignored.
For personal impact, the decline in international oil prices will also drive down domestic oil prices. The fact that has to be acknowledged is that currently, fuel vehicles still account for the vast majority of domestic car sales. It is very difficult for new energy vehicles to quickly surpass the volume of fuel vehicles.
Coupled with the current plunge in oil prices, it seems that fuel vehicles are more attractive to consumers. For the choice of new energy vehicles, decision-making costs may be higher and more difficult.
Finally, the epidemic has hindered offline transactions. The online car sales model is not bad, it is difficult to exert force. Although affected by the epidemic, Mencolo’s offline physical stores have almost been shut down, but the automotive sector still maintains a high level of activity in online sales. There are also numerous new energy vehicle manufacturers, as well as dealers, looking forward to finding a life-saving straw through online car sales. But compared with the fiery degree of online sellers of real estate companies such as Evergrande, the influence they generate can be described as utterly inadequate.
Although there are many ways to watch the car in VR, live car sales, and test drive at the door, but it still has not changed the status quo of the car is difficult to sell, and the car retailer who hopes to achieve self-rescue through this method, after several attempts, also seems to have been splashed in the bucket. Cold water, no passion to continue trying.
The reason is that on the one hand, the automotive industry has long relied on offline sales, and now the links that can complete transactions online are not sufficient. For example, the purchase, replacement, finance, and listing of cars need to be handled offline. On the other hand, transactions are mainly to determine orders and collect customers; on the other hand, auto transactions involve a large amount of money, and auto consumers have a long decision-making cycle. Online transactions are difficult for ordinary consumers to buy with confidence. ”
According to the observations, the current model of online sales of new energy vehicles is more able to allow car companies and dealers to strengthen online interaction with consumers at special times, and nothing more. For marketing conversion, online As a result of car sales, this model is still weak. Therefore, this is still far from the original intention of auto companies to reverse the situation and try to bring cash flow through this method.
Under the epidemic, the four major trends of new energy vehicles, although Multi-party pressure is expected in the future.
Tesla According to Electric State ’s analysis of new energy vehicle sales and public data from the Federation of Trade Unions, the entire February, affected by the epidemic, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China both fell, with a year-on-year decline of 70%; Among them, the wholesale volume is 15,000, and the retail sales reach 14,000. Specific to the models, Model 3 topped the list with 3,900 vehicles; GAC New Energy Aion S ranked second, and BYD Qin EV ranked third. The difference is almost the same.
From the data of the electric vehicle sales model of the electric state, the following trends can be seen. ranked
First, the A-class pure electric vehicle has consistently first in the market share. From the model level In terms of sales volume, the top ten sales models are still mainly A-class pure electric vehicles. This trend can also be corroborated by the data released by the Federation of Automobile Federations. According to the report of the Structure of Electric Vehicles ’share of electric vehicles In the sales of pure electric vehicles in February, A-class vehicles accounted for nearly 50%, while plug-in vehicles accounted for only about 10%, and A-class vehicles accounted for 40%. sales car sales.
The reason for this is that more than 60% of the came from online And taxis to buy cars. However, in February, the travel market was affected by the epidemic, and sales of this part of the market fell down simultaneously, so the electric vehicle market was stagnant.
Second, the foreign electric vehicle giant Tesla aggressively attacked. Tesla has been in Shanghai, China since Since its investment in the plant, its market offensive has continued unabated. Sales of its classic model, Model 3, have been bullish all the way. During the epidemic, its sales still topped all electric vehicle models. And its market share is close to 30%, which shows that It is unshakable.
Once again, after the automobile industry collectively fell into the cold winter, the new foundation of the yet-to-be-established car-making forces took place. It can be seen from the analysis data of the Federation of Automobile Associations that since 2020, Weilai and Weimar The leading companies of the new car building force have a stable sales performance. Moreover, Xiaopeng, Aichi, and Hezhong have delivered mass production vehicles. These veritable new car building forces have also shown strong momentum and are catching up. The emergence of new car building forces.
Finally, A00 new energy vehicles or new categories of home-purchased cars. In 2019, compared to the main market of A-class electric vehicles, more than 60% of them are Internet-linked cars, taxis, and A00-class new energy. The market share of cars is close behind, and its sales are dominated by personal car purchases. Moreover, from the historical sales performance of A00-level new energy, it seems that this type of new energy vehicles is just the demand in the end market. Therefore, Despite the short-term impact of the epidemic and residents ’travel needs, which has been under pressure for two consecutive months, the future is expected. The
policy to rescue the market may find a first-line vitality for new energy vehicles.
After the epidemic broke out across the world, the world has introduced” rescue the city. ” “Policy, China’s support policy for new energy vehicles is even more extensive and unprecedented. Although online sales are weak, and horizontal integration has become a general trend, it seems that in the field of new energy vehicles that have been hit hard and hurt, it seems that only national policies can enable them to find lifeline.
As a bulk consumer, cars are related to the living standards of the residents and the banking and financial systems that correspond to their consumers, and also to the small and medium shareholders of the capital market, and even the country’s financial securities system. And its market future is even more controlled by the direction of national policy. Therefore, whether it can kill a bloody road at the most difficult time still requires the large-scale ecological cooperation of this automotive industry chain.
In addition, as the main force for the future development of new energy vehicles, social media need a positive attitude and report objectively and truthfully to regain confidence in the capital market and consumer end.
Yu Jian noted that relevant national departments have spared no effort in this regard. For example, during the epidemic, the development of the automobile industry was listed as a key topic by the Politburo Standing Committee meeting, and it provided guidance on stabilizing the automobile bulk consumer market and encouraging the release of restrictions on purchases.
Subsequently, major ministries and commissions successively introduced policies for encouraging automobile consumption, and gradually allowed relevant policies for new energy vehicles to be implemented.
First of all, the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Notice on Supporting the Resumption of Business of Commerce and Trade Circulation Enterprises” in early March, and repeatedly stated at regular press conferences that localities were encouraged to introduce new energy vehicles and promote the replacement of old cars with new ones in light of local conditions And other measures to stabilize the new energy vehicle market.
At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce has launched a number of assistance policies to maintain the stability of the market related to automobile foreign trade. For example, for areas where rigid consumption of new energy vehicles is affected by the epidemic and the subsidy policy has been postponed, the epidemic situation will be replenished to support compensatory consumption. In addition, in terms of import and export trade, export tax rebates, export credit insurance, export credit and other compliance policy tools are also good for new energy vehicles, which rely heavily on foreign trade industries.
Secondly, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also issued a series of policies on industrial energy conservation and comprehensive utilization. For example, it has issued relevant documents, promoted the construction of a new energy vehicle power battery recycling system, carried out extended pilots for producer responsibility, accelerated the promotion and application of methanol vehicles, and strengthened the use of hazardous substances.
Third, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Justice also issued a number of documents to improve the promotion mechanism of new energy vehicles, providing guidance for the marketing and promotion of the automotive market. For example, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has jointly issued the “Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of a Green Production and Consumption Regulations and Policies System” with the Ministry of Justice in improving the motor vehicle scrap update policy and the new energy vehicle promotion mechanism. Laws and regulations, establish and improve the relevant institutional framework, and encourage the replacement of new energy vehicles.
In addition, in terms of energy conservation and environmental protection, policy support has been given to consumers in purchasing new energy vehicle-related products. At the same time, in order to promote the policy change of automobile purchase restriction to guided use, the Development and Reform Commission also issued relevant documents to encourage regions where automobile purchase is restricted to appropriately increase the limit of automobile license plates. In terms of traffic restrictions, it will also reduce the restrictions on pure electric light trucks by deploying urban vehicle traffic management policies.
In addition to national-level assistance policies, some local policies have also been introduced and have achieved initial results. For example, in Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other places, policies for increasing the number of passenger cars have been introduced. The Hunan Development and Reform Commission supports the first purchase of new energy vehicles by car-free families, and encourages promotional activities such as going to the countryside to revitalize the used car market. .
It can be seen that under the current situation of the epidemic situation, the support of national and local policies for new energy vehicles is tilted, which has brought a glimmer of life to the stagnant new energy vehicles and also allowed new energy vehicles to be In development, it still has full potential.
Therefore, we also have reasons to believe that, as one of the rigid needs of people for food, clothing, and transportation, although the entire industry has been raged by the epidemic in the short term, it still has a strong vitality.
Although most of the new energy vehicles on the market were born in 5-6 years, both the technical level and the performance of the market cognitive level are still slightly green. However, in the context of increasingly limited world petroleum resources, new energy vehicles are an emerging force in this industry. Because no one can stop, people’s pursuit of environmental protection and high-quality living environment. The corresponding industries and markets will therefore be full of unlimited imagination.