Original title: Alert! British Secretary of Health: “herd immunity” is not our goal or policy
[Global News] According to the British Sky News, the British Health Minister said: “Herd immunity is not our goal or policy-it is a scientific concept. Our The policy is to protect lives and defeat this virus. ”
In an interview with Sky Television on the 13th, Patrick Valence, chief scientific adviser to the British government, said that about 60% of Britons will need to be infected with the new crown virus in order for society to be future-proof. The outbreak has herd immunity. Britain currently has about 66 million people, and according to Patrick’s prediction, 40 million people need to be infected with the new crown virus.
Earlier reports: The United Kingdom throws “herd immunity” to deal with the new crown epidemic: is it a risky gamble or a scam that “sees death”
[Global Times-Global Reporter Zhao Jueyu] “About 60% of British people need to be infected with the new crown virus to prevent it from Future outbreaks, “said Patrick Valence, chief scientific adviser of the United Kingdom, on the 13th, shocking the world. At a time when various measures are being taken to control the spread of the new crown virus, this “laissez-faire” strategy has attracted a wave of questions and criticisms. The day before Patrick said the above, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson mentioned in his speech that the British people should be prepared to “prematurely die of their loved ones”.
Official voices from the United Kingdom show that the country is responding to the new crown epidemic with an extremely “daring” strategy, which is considered to have considerable risks and uncertainties, and many experts even blame this as A means of “natural selection” and “survival of the fittest” is a gamble.
In the absence of a vaccine, , which made it “risky” for two-thirds of the nation to develop immunity after infection
Patrick Valence, the country’s chief scientific adviser, was the first to propose a strategy for herd immunity in the United Kingdom . In an interview with British Sky Television on the 13th, Patrick said that about 60% of Britons will need to be infected with the new crown virus in order to make the community herd immune to future outbreaks. Britain currently has about 66 million people, and according to Patrick’s prediction, 40 million people need to be infected with the new crown virus.
The concept of herd immunity proposed by Patrick has a long history. According to the definition given by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), herd immunity means that in some cases, a sufficient proportion of the population is immune to an infectious disease (either through vaccination or previous suffering from the disease), thus making the infection Disease cannot spread from person to person. According to the CDC, this method also provides a degree of protection for unvaccinated newborns and patients with chronic diseases, and they are the most vulnerable to infectious diseases. In the late 1980s, the United States protected its preschool children from measles through massive immunizations.
According to previous research, the core of forming herd immunity is to require enough people to have immunity, either vaccine immunization or natural immunity. According to an article published by Yu Xiaohua, Chair Professor of the Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development at the University of Göttingen in Germany, whether herd immunity is effective requires the threshold of herd immunity, which is related to the basic R0 value of the virus (ie, the average number of people infected by a patient). , R0 <1 means that the infectious disease is under control). Papers published by scholars from many countries show that the academic community generally believes that the R0 value of neocrown virus is around 2-3, which means that if the UK wants to form herd immunity, 50% to 67% of people need to be immunized with neocrown virus.
Generally speaking, the formation of herd immunity mainly depends on vaccination, but the vaccine of new crown virus is still under development. If you want to form herd immunity, you can only rely on the immune capacity of patients with new crown pneumonia. An expert from the Beijing Aidu Medical Team told the Global Times reporter on the 14th that although herd immunization is indeed an effective means of fighting infectious diseases, the risks of doing so without a vaccine are unpredictable.
An article published on the 14th by Rao Yi, the president of Capital Medical University, argued that “herd immunity” is completely a “lie” of the British Prime Minister. Rao Yi said that when a new virus appears, all people have no vaccine, and very few people may have innate immunity. Without suppressing the spread of the virus and exposing the entire population to the virus, it is impossible for herd immunity to occur. What will happen is that anyone who is infected will die, and those who will not die will be immune and continue to live. This phenomenon is Darwin’s “natural selection, survival of the fittest”.
“We didn’t take any action at all, but we were told we would have loved ones die.”
“40 million British people need to be infected with the new crown virus.” Criticized. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the well-known British medical magazine The Lancet, criticized on social media that the British government is “playing roulette with the public.”
On social media, many British Internet users criticized Patrick and the British government for being “cold-blooded” and inaction. Some British netizens said, “We did not take any action at all, but we were told that we would have loved ones die. Any action was better than the current situation.” Yale University Assistant Professor of Global Health Policy and Economics Chen Xi also told the Global Times reporter on the 14th that there is a Darwinist view of herd immunity, that it is a natural choice for the fittest, and that the government should take all measures for vulnerable populations Help as much as possible.
World Health Organization spokeswoman Margaret Harris also questioned the British strategy when she accepted the BBC on the 14th, saying that scientists do not know enough about the new crown virus to know its role in the immune system. situation. Margaret said, “Every action of a virus in the human body is different, and it will stimulate different immunological features. We can talk about theory, but the situation right now is that we must take action.”
The reason put forward Herd immunization is a coping strategy. One of the main judgments of Patrick and British health officials is that “most people with new coronavirus infection have relatively mild symptoms.” Guidance issued by the Department of Public Health on the 12th also emphasizes this point. According to the guidance, no new coronavirus test will be performed for mild patients in the UK, and patients will be listed as suspected cases for testing only after hospitalization is required. According to data from the UK Department of Health, as of 9 am on the 13th, the UK has tested the new crown virus for 32,771 people, of which 798 have been confirmed positive, and a total of 10 positive cases have died.
But this basis of judgment has also been heavily questioned. Although according to the data released by the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the proportion of mild cases of neo-crown pneumonia is about 80%, but the above-mentioned experts from the Beijing Aid E Medical Team told the Global Times reporter that the condition of neo-crown virus changes rapidly. Timely treatment will greatly increase the severity and mortality. At present, the mortality rate of New Coronary Pneumonia in China is 3.9%, which is much higher than that of viral influenza. If the UK does not adopt compulsory isolation measures and let the infection go, it will probably see a higher mortality rate than 3.9%.
Ning Yi, a professor at the Institute of Public Health at Peking University, also believed that Patrick’s assumption was wrong in an interview with the media on the 14th. Ning Yi commented that “this is a death-seeking strategy, and it is also impractical.”
“Delaying” the epidemic has been criticized by the World Health Organization.
Whether it is herd immunity or negative epidemic resistance, Patrick, Johnson and other European dignitaries have made remarks. Both show that the path to combat the new crown virus in Europe is not the same as that in China. Rather than “containment”, they are more concerned about how to “mitigation” the epidemic so that it will not overwhelm the medical system or even the entire society.
Patrick said, “The UK wants to delay the peak period and suppress the peak period to prevent overwhelming national medical services.” The UK hopes to delay the peak period of the new crown outbreak to summer as much as possible to avoid the winter with high influenza. Spring season. French Health Minister Olivier Welland had also said that the new virus has not yet crown throughout the pandemic in France, “We can not stop the spread of the virus, but we can avoid many of the patients will at the same time.”
Chen Xi for “Global Times” reporter analysis said that this response strategy can not reduce the overall death toll, but can slow down the spread of the virus through quarantine and other methods to make the time of infection more dispersed, try to delay the peak and make it as smooth as possible. The core of this kind of method that can be regarded as “peak-peak infection” is to prevent the medical system from collapsing so as to provide better services for patients, especially the elderly and children.
Although the strategy is the same, Britain ’s measures to deal with the new crown epidemic are also the mildest compared to France and Germany. As of the 14th, although discussions are underway, the UK has not announced the cancellation of all major events, and British schools have not suspended classes. Johnson still emphasizes that it is important to take the opportunity to take preventive measures. Experts predict that the number of confirmed infections will start to increase in the UK from early April, 2 weeks later, and peak in May or June. Response plans and measures will be determined based on this judgment.
But the WHO Director-General has no name on the 12th criticized the “delay” strategy adopted by some countries. “The idea that countries should move from curbing the spread of virus to delaying it is wrong and dangerous. Instead, we must redouble our efforts Stop the virus from spreading further. “Tan Desai said, the new crown epidemic is controllable. Those countries that have decided to abandon the use of basic public health measures to prevent and control may eventually face bigger problems that will place a heavier burden on the health system and now need to take tougher measures to control it.
Former WHO Child and Adolescent Health Director Anthony Costello said on the 14th that the UK ’s anti-epidemic strategy seeking to establish herd immunity is out of touch with other countries, which may conflict with WHO ’s strategy. WHO The policy is to contain the virus by tracking all cases.
The latest research published by American scholars shows that if Italy can act early and control social distance, it can control the infection of the new crown virus without closing the city, but it is too late for them to react. As for the British government’s decision, an Italian wrote on social media: “Every day of delay will bring a lot of death and economic loss. This is the experience from Italy.”