Original title: Italy, already on the edge of a cliff
Source: Country is through train
WHO Director-General Tan Desai warned on March 2 local time that the number of new cases outside China in the past 24 hours is almost the number of new cases in China 9 times. The outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, Iran and Japan are the most worrying, with South Korea’s new crown pneumonia cases accounting for half of the total cases outside China.
But from the current situation, the most disturbing of these four countries is Italy.
The “three big mountains” are the
first, and the number of confirmed patients is rising rapidly.
The recent spread of the epidemic in Italy is a bit soaring. On February 20, local time, there were only 3 confirmed cases; on the 23rd, it increased to 152; on the 29th, it exceeded 1,000 for the first time; on March 2, the cumulative confirmed cases reached 2,036, of which 1,835 were existing cases, an increase of 258 from the previous day There were 52 deaths, an increase of 18 from the previous day.
Giovanni Rezza, head of the infectious disease department at the Italian National Institute of Health, said that the number of confirmed cases is expected to increase at a higher rate in the next few days.
second , exporting cases to many countries.
Switzerland, Croatia, Austria, Romania, Greece, and Denmark have recently announced that the first confirmed case of new coronary pneumonia in the country has a history of exposure to Italy. The first confirmed patient in Switzerland participated in an event near Milan, Italy, on February 15th. After two days, the body began to feel uncomfortable.
Many of the newly diagnosed cases recently reported in Israel, Britain, and Germany have also traveled to Italy. The seven newly confirmed cases reported in Zhejiang today are also imported from Italy.
The severity of the domestic epidemic in Italy can be imagined.
Third, and most persuasive, is that the prevention and control is more “magic.”
The first is the problem of masks. Until now, Italian officials have deemed it unnecessary for healthy people to wear masks. Walt Ricciardi, adviser to the Italian Minister of Health, Speranza, emphasized at a press conference recently: “Masks are only used to protect patients and health care workers.” The 10 new crown vaccination guidelines issued by the Italian Ministry of Health also stipulate that there is no respiratory In the case of symptoms, the general population “does not need to wear a mask.”
Wearing masks is not only discouraged, but also easily despised. A few days ago, a member of parliament in Italy who had gone to three epidemic areas came into parliament with a mask and was laughed at. He was so angry that he said, “If you are smart people, you would have put on a mask already”. .
Even if she resolutely wears a mask, the style of painting may be like this:
Secondly, the attitude of the Italian people towards the epidemic prevention and control measures is a little …
On February 23, Ivrea’s annual “Orange War” was still held as usual, and about 15,000 people participated in the carnival. As of the afternoon of February 23, the cumulative number of new crown pneumonia infections in Italy reached 152, including 3 deaths, and it was the country with the most severe epidemic outside Asia.
In recent days, Italy has adopted closure measures in several towns with confirmed cases in the northern part of the country, including prohibiting anyone from entering and leaving closed towns, but movement within the towns is not affected for the time being; suspension of events or meetings in public or private places Suspend education activities and related travel; close museums, offices, and stores other than pharmacies and food stores; restrict or suspend passenger and cargo transportation, etc. Police and others are responsible for implementing the above measures and offenders will be prosecuted.
Affected by the epidemic, the Venice Carnival was suspended; several Serie A football leagues were also postponed to May.
The government is waiting hard, but the Italian people are a bit dismissive.
The most severe outbreak of Lombardy Region Chairman Adiario Fontana recently announced on Facebook that he would be isolated from home and office for 14 days by a colleague of the regional government, and would direct work through the Internet and telephone.
Unexpectedly, Italian netizens began to “group and attack”, many people think that this is “making panic” and will cause economic losses. One netizen wrote: “With just one photo, GDP can be reduced by 1 point.” Some people also believe that wearing masks by government officials will affect Italy’s image in the world.
Others simply object strongly. On February 29, a closed town dweller gathered in the square, pulling a huge banner, demanding “return to freedom”. Moreover, most people do not wear masks at all.
on the cliffside
epidemic is rampant , and the Italian economy seems to be in the shadow.
Among the major EU economies, Italy’s debt ratio is relatively high. According to official data, Italian debt accounts for nearly 140% of GDP, second only to Greece in the euro area.
The European Commission recently released a report that as a major exporter, Italy is particularly vulnerable to the impact of the global economy. Italy needs to carry a lot of debt each year, about 20% of GDP, which makes investors very sensitive to risks.
Affected by the epidemic, the IMF has recently cut its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.2%. Some scholars believe that considering that the epidemic has spread to all continents except Antarctica, the world economy may lose trillions of dollars, and the growth rate will not be ruled out to fall below 3%.
The European Commission has warned that the surge in risk aversion in financial markets will increase the risks faced by Italy’s public finances, and the high cost of debt service will also make the country more intensive in countercyclical adjustments and the fiscal space for economic stabilization. Italy is now at risk of a recession, “already on the edge of a cliff.”
Once the Italian economy collapses, the European economy will suffer.
Su Qingyi, an associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that if Britain is still regarded as an EU country, the proportion of Germany, France, Britain and Italy in the EU economy in 2018 will be 21.03%, 14.80%, 16.03%, 11.10% , the importance of the Italian economy in the European economy cannot be underestimated.
He said that the worse the economic situation and the weaker the shock resistance of the country before the outbreak, the greater the impact of the epidemic. Among the major European countries, Italy’s economic situation is relatively poor. In recent years, the growth rate has been significantly lower than that of Germany, France, and Britain. The unemployment rate is also among the highest in Europe . The unemployment rate in 2019 is close to 10% . In this case, the Italian economy will be more affected by the epidemic, and the already sluggish European economy will also be worsened. If the epidemic lasts longer and spreads to more countries, the impact on Europe and the entire world economy will be even greater.
Chen Fengying, former director of the Institute of World Economics of the Institute of Modern International Relations, also told the China News Agency that the European economy has been relatively weak in recent years, and that it has implemented a negative interest rate policy and a high debt ratio. Monetary and fiscal policies There is little room for overweight to deal with the impact of the epidemic. In this case, the spread of the epidemic will further exacerbate the plight facing the European economy.